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 Join Paid Prediction Markets on 11 JDM Replications
Posted by: Gilad Feldman
Title/Position: Assistant Professor
School/Organization: University of Hong Kong
Sent to listserv of: SESP
Date posted: December 6th, 2019


You are invited to participate in paid prediction markets betting real money (US$50) on the success of 11 replications we're running of classic findings in Judgment and Decision Making (JDM)!

More details follow below—feel free to spread to others.
Signup form: https://airtable.com/shr9ISwWup0bIkcUm

Background:

Our team is running a large-scale replication project, mass mobilizing students to conduct pre-registered replications of classic findings in Judgment and Decision Making (outlined in http://mgto.org/pre-registered-replications/). Last year we completed 45 replications, and this semester we are in the process of running 25 new replications, with 11 replications to be completed in December 2019.

Replications design and evaluation criteria:

Each replication is conducted by two different teams on two separate well-powered samples (99%+) of Amazon Mechanical Turk workers (Americans) and Prolific Academic participants (British, unless some constraints required Americans). The replications are conducted by undergraduate students at the University of Hong Kong as part of course work in a structured Registered Reports open-science process (outlined in our collaborative guide: https://tinyurl.com/replicationguide) involving open peer-review by fellow students and external reviewers.

For each target classic article, you will bet on a binary outcome: whether the aggregated effects of the two replication attempts would be in the same direction as the original study, with a 95% confidence interval of the effect size not including the null.

Eligibility, pay, & participation:

Everybody but those involved in running these replications is eligible to participate in the prediction markets. For each replication attempt we will make available very detailed pre-registrations in registered report format and lots of information to help you make an informed decision. The prediction markets are subsidized. All participants will get about $50 on their prediction account to trade with. How much money you make depends on how you bet on different hypotheses (on average participants will earn about $50 as Amazon gift card money).

Schedule:

The prediction markets will open on December 10, 2019, 16:00 GMT and close on December 23, 2019, 16:00 GMT. We will send you all required information in due time.

The prediction markets are run in collaboration with Cultivate Labs https://www.cultivatelabs.com/. If you have any questions, please do not hesitate to email jdmpredictionmarkets@gmail.com

Signup form: https://airtable.com/shr9ISwWup0bIkcUm

Feel free to share with interested others.

Attachment: JDM paid prediction market announcement.docx



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